NC North Carolina News

A recent joint study from California institutions, similar to one taking place in North Carolina, has Sen. Phil Berger (R-Rockingham) feeling encouraged about the strides being made in understanding the impact of COVID-19.

Stanford University's School of Medicine and University of Southern California School of Public Policy indicates the death rate attributed to the virus may be lower than originally thought based on the emergence of new testing and its capabilities, according to Berger's post on Medium on April 17. 

The study, he wrote, indicated previous results have depended on a formula using confirmed cases multiplied by an estimated number that indicates asymptomatic cases or an unknown to determine infections.

With the ability to determine the level of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, which is the name of the COVID-19 virus, researchers were able to develop more solid numbers for those infected, he wrote.

The data implied that between 48,000 to 81,000 have been infected in Santa Clara County, he wrote, attributing to the study. The number of those reported to be infected on April 1 was 959, which was much lower than the number of infections predicted in the study. Given the number infected with a three-week span, there were an estimated 100 deaths because of the virus, he wrote. If the estimated hold true, the result was much lower than a two- to a three-percent chance of death, dropping to 0.12% from 0.2%.

The results, according to the senator, were the first large-scale community-based prevalence study in a large county in the nation and was completed quickly with new test kids. It acknowledges new information with a new kit could result in updated estimates.

“These are the results from one study in one county but it is encouraging,” Berger wrote. “We’re finally getting a better idea of the nature of the virus and how prevalent it is. I’m excited that a similar effort is underway through Wake Forest Baptist Health and Atrium Health, with collaboration from Stanford University researchers. Hopefully, we can soon obtain more reliable data to inform major public policy decisions.”